President Trump’s seemingly-ceaseless trade war has caused quite a disturbance in both international markets and headlines, causing anxiety for investors and consumers alike around the world. Nonetheless, with new scandals consuming the attention of the headlines every few days and with many investors lost in the ensuing media maelstrom, many are struggling to make sense of the US trade war and how it will affect commodity prices.
Luckily, a reasoned analysis of the situation isn’t far from hand, and we can already begin to see how the trade war has affected commodity prices thus far. Here’s how President Trump’s trade war has impacted commodities, and how they may fare in the near-future.
Traders are still bullish on commodities
The good news for those who are invested in a global free trade regime (essentially everyone but the current U.S. president) is that traders are still bullish on commodities despite the political furor that’s recently dominated international diplomacy. Goldman Sachs, for instance, recently posited in a research note that fears surrounding the existing trade dispute between the United States and China were likely largely overblown in the public market. As a matter of fact, the company actually sees commodities as being set to rise, and thinks that in its current stage the trade war won’t ultimately have a terrible impact on the commodities market in general.
Still, raw materials aren’t magically insulated from the economic fallout of President Trump’s trade war, and it would be dishonest to say that they haven’t already felt the heat from the economic fires currently raging between Beijing and Washington. An analysis of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, for instance, which measures the wellbeing of disparate raw materials across the economy, notes that the commodity market has slumped recently and stands to drag other sectors with it. Traders may be bullish on commodity prices where they stand to make a profit, but that doesn’t mean the market isn’t concerned about the damage that’s already been wrought by the trade war.